Hi, @jayplayco here.
I have done some number crunching based on open numbers to see how Steemhunt is moving forward in a bear market like now.
0. Repository
https://github.com/Steemhunt/web
1. How To.
I have gathered the information on the @steemhunt account, as they are publishing a daily report about how many hunts have been verified and how much SBD the hunts have created. (The SBD created includes the voting from the Steemhunt account). Additionally, I have gathered information from coinmarketcap.com to include the historical price data of STEEM. Based on this data I used the following formula to get an average value for a daily Steem price cleaned data.
Daily gathered SBD / Daily Steem Price = Average Value
The data is based on the last 3 month beginning from 15th of November 2018 to 14th of February 2019.
2. Products
We have a glitch at the beginning of February and it was due to a system upgrade of Steemhunt. The graph looks like as the hunts are on a similar level, but if we dive into the details it shows a bit different picture.
- Average hunted products Nov. 15-Dec. 14 : 151.6 products
- Average hunted products Dec. 15-Jan. 14 : 138.97 products
- Average hunted products Jan. 15-Feb. 14 : 164.78 products
The total average for all three months is 151.7 products and the activity in December was a bit slower. It may has to do with the holidays in December or also with the average Steem price, which was at a level of 0.27USD in the second period compared to 0.37USD in Nov. 15- Dec.14.
The good part is, that the average hunted products are increasing again and are now on a level of 164.78 products per day.
2. Products vs. SBD
Based on the hunted products number the daily generated SBD reward is moving on a similar level.
If we want to look into the rewards, we have also to look into the relation with historical Steem prices.
Similar to the generated SBD rewards we can see as the Steem price is declining, the rewarded SBD is also declining. The main reason here is that the SBD’s generated as the reward at Steemhunt is still mainly created by the main account @steemhunt which leads to a proportional high relation to the Steem price. As soon as Steemhunt’s user base is growing rapidly, this picture would change.
3. Average daily Value
Daily gathered SBD / Daily Steem Price = Average Value
The average daily value is giving a picture of a comparable value of Steemhunt’s generated rewards. It also shows a slight decrease, so let’s get into details here.
- Average Value Nov. 15-Dec. 14 : 1253 points
- Average Value Dec. 15-Jan. 14 : 1328 points
- Average Value Jan. 15-Feb. 14 : 1021 points
These numbers are interesting, as we can compare it with the average of hunted products. It shows a different picture and gives us the insight that we had the highest average value points between Dec.15-Jan. 14 and that it is decreasing very fast in the most recent term to 1021 points. It may is in relevance with the fact Steemhunt had decided to decrease the HUNT token rewards end of January or it could point (supposing that the rewarding part of the account @steemhunt is on a similar level) that fewer users are curating and upvoting at Steemhunt since a month.
So could this be a problem?
If we have a look at https://www.stateofthedapps.com/ and see how the development of user engagement is, it actually looks ok. It means that even when the daily reward pool (upvoting users) may shrink for the moment, Steemhunt got more active users on their platform (which is based on different kind of activities). So, in my opinion, it is a short reaction and will recover again.
4. Average daily Value based on Weekdays
Most rewards are created on Tuesday. Saturday and Sunday seem to have the least upvoting activities from hunters. We can assume that active Steemhunt users could plan on posting on Tuesdays.
And looking into the numbers shows that Tuesday is really the day with the most hunted products. On the other side, if the hunter would like to have a better chance to rank, they should target a Sunday or Monday, as these days are the least crowded days. If you look into the upvoting pattern, Monday would be the best day to give your hunt a better chance for a good ranking.
5. Conclusion
Even on this bearish market, we can see that Steemhunt is keeping a good pace. The number of hunted products are increasing again, there are fewer hunters upvoting the hunts, but the active user number is increasing, which could be interpreted that more new hunters are active.